Published: November 2011

This report presents the latest results from the Department of Labour’s Lead Employment Indicator. The indicator is designed to give an advanced signal of when employment (as measured by the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS)) is likely to reach a peak or trough. 

The key advantage of the Lead Employment Indicator is that it combines five different indicators to produce one overall message about future changes in the employment cycle.  The Lead Employment Indicator tends to be more reliable than any of its components used individually, with much of the variability in the individual components smoothed out in the Lead Employment Indicator.

Lead Employment Indicator quarterly report

Summary

• The Lead Employment Indicator fell by 0.3% during the September 2011 quarter after increasing for the previous seven quarters. However, this will not indicate a downturn in employment over the coming year unless the Lead Employment Indicator is also negative in the December 2011 quarter.

• The Lead Employment Indicator can also be used to forecast short-term employment growth. The Lead Employment Indicator is currently predicting that employment will increase by about 0.3% in the December 2011 quarter and by between 0.2% and 0.4% in the following two quarters.

Link to the report

• September 2011 quarter update HTML | PDF [3 pages, 158 kB]

Background and Methodology

• Link to Background and Methodology HTML | PDF [17 pages, 200 kB]

Frequently Asked Questions and Answers

• Link to FAQs

Future updates

This is a regular report - the next update is due shortly after the December 2011 quarter release of the Household Labour Force Survey.

Contact details

For further information please email research@dol.govt.nz