Published: 1 March 2010

Migration data is sourced from Statistics New Zealand. Unless otherwise specified, all data refers to permanent & long-term (PLT, i.e., 12 months or more) migration, is not seasonally adjusted, and is rounded to the nearest 100.

• Net annual PLT migration continued to rise in the year to January 2010, reaching 22,600.  The rise was driven by a 24.2% fall in PLT departures over the past year.
• Annual PLT arrivals declined despite more New Zealanders returning home.
• Net inward migration is expected to rise further in the short-term, but is approaching its peak.

Figure 1: Annual PLT migration

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Data table for Figure 1

Figure 2: Monthly net migration

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Data table for Figure 2

Net annual PLT migration rose to 22,600, its highest level since May 2004…

In the year to January 2010, there were 22,600 more PLT arrivals than departures, a significant increase compared to the 4,500 recorded in the year to January 2009. Net annual inflows have reached their highest level since May 2004 (Figure 1).

…due to a significant decrease in PLT departures

A 24.2% fall in PLT departures was the driver of the rise in net migration over the past year. Annual departures have now fallen to their lowest level since August 2004. The decline in departures has largely been due to fewer New Zealanders leaving for Australia. In the year to January 2010, 27,000 New Zealanders departed for Australia, 38.1% less than a year ago.  

PLT arrivals declined despite more New Zealanders returning home

PLT arrivals decreased by 2.5% (or 2,200 people) over the year to January 2010, due to a 7.3% (or 4,700 people) fall in arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens (i.e., fewer people arriving with work permits or residence permits). The decrease in PLT arrivals was offset by a strong increase in the number of New Zealanders returning home (up by 10.6%, or 2,500 people). In particular, the number of New Zealanders returning from Australia has increased by 24.1% (or 2,000 people) over the past year.

Monthly net inward migration increased

Seasonally adjusted net migration inflows were 2,000 in January 2010, up from 1,700 in December 2009 (Figure 2). This was mainly due to fewer PLT departures.

Net inward migration is expected to reach its peak in the near future

Net annual PLT inward migration is unlikely to climb much further, with the monthly seasonally adjusted figures (Figure 2) showing a fairly flat trend over the past year. Departures are likely to pick up in 2010, as the global economy recovers and labour markets, especially in Australia, improve.