Climate change and resource pressures

Environmental pressures, especially climate change and natural resource constraints, will also be powerful forces for change in the New Zealand job market in the years up to 2020 and beyond. New Zealand’s long-term economic viability is closely tied to its natural environment and the availability of resources, including energy. The transition to a sustainable, low-carbon economy will involve major shifts in employment, skill sets and workplace practices – all of which need to be better understood if New Zealand is to take advantage of a variety of new opportunities. Future success will involve supporting sectors and skills to foster leadership and capitalise on arising opportunities.

Adapting to climate change and reducing emissions

Over the coming decades, climate change will affect New Zealand industries and occupations – either directly, through changing conditions for sectors such as agriculture, fisheries and forestry – or indirectly, as industries are affected by mitigation policies and adapt to markets influenced by climate change.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is a high priority. New Zealand’s emissions trading scheme (ETS) will cover all sectors and gases, making it the world’s most comprehensive scheme. Different sectors will be phased into the scheme over the next five years, and the government will continue to assist industry and agriculture adjust to the scheme until 2025.

New Zealand has a unique emissions profile compared to other developed countries. Agriculture composes 48% of our emissions compared to around 12% in other developed countries, while the energy sector represents 44% of emissions in New Zealand compared to 70-80% in other countries. However, the largest growth in our emissions has been in the energy sector. The ETS will provide New Zealand businesses with a flexible way of reducing their carbon footprint at minimum cost and help put New Zealand on the path to a sustainable future.

In addition to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, responding to climate change may include adapting to rising sea levels, changing rainfall patterns, increased storminess and different migration patterns spurred by environmental factors.  These changes could bring opportunities to New Zealand, for example by growing horticultural crops in new regions or for longer seasons. Emission intensive industries will need to either reduce emissions or meet the cost of those emissions.

We should bear in mind that some overseas ecosystems (such as those in the Pacific islands and possibly Australia) are more vulnerable to the effects of global warming than ours. This increases the prospect of environmental migration in the longer term.  It may be necessary to respond to these migration pressures through adjustments to existing migration schemes or the development of new schemes. This may impact the future supply of labour in New Zealand and would present further opportunities and challenges for New Zealand employers.

From a labour market perspective, climate change is likely to impact on employment, skills and productivity. There will be sectoral shifts but exactly how they unfold is unknown. Initial economic modelling of how climate change will affect the labour market is now being undertaken, though a full understanding of the issues will involve a range of approaches that will be developed over time.  

Decarbonisation and green skills

Along with climate change, future decarbonisation of the economy will be driven by resource constraints and likely increases in the prices of fossil fuels.  While the exact timing of the peaking of world oil and gas supplies is still debatable, there is increasing acceptance that the global flow of these crucial non-renewable resources, especially oil, will reach a maximum level before 2020. Combined with increasing demand pressures, especially from developing countries, New Zealanders are likely to experience ongoing high increases in commodity prices, led by rising energy prices which directly influence food and other commodities.

To adapt to these climate change and resource pressures new green skills will be needed in both emerging and established industries. These will be jobs that help to protect and restore ecosystems and biodiversity, reduce energy, materials and water consumption through high efficiency and avoidance strategies, de-carbonize the economy, and minimize or avoid other forms of waste and pollution.

Although environmental protection has often been seen as leading to job losses, evidence from both macro-economic modelling and sector-based technological studies suggest that moves to a decarbonised economy could be job-creating overall. [1] [2] In fact, the move to a green economy offers business opportunities, especially in sectors such as renewable energy, energy efficient buildings, public transport and food production. [3] A move towards a low-carbon economy would stimulate a focus on both labour productivity improvements, as well as energy and materials productivity. Leadership in green innovation could reap substantial economic rewards for New Zealand. However, to take advantage of new business opportunities it will be important for the New Zealand government, educational institutions and businesses to understand new environmental trends and actively support the development of green skills. 

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