Conclusions

The pace of economic, social and technological change will continue to increase over the next 12 years.

• Significant population cohorts, baby blip and baby boomers, will move through into, through and out of the workforce, with an eventual petering out of labour force growth after 2020.
• Globalisation will continue to produce large economic shifts as international product and labour markets expand. Competition across borders will intensify and offshoring, especially of services, will be even more prevalent.
• Globalisation of markets, combined with new technologies, will influence international labour flows, at the same time expanding labour market options for New Zealand workers who will be able to market their services in cross-border labour markets.
• Increased labour productivity will be required to keep pace with our global competitors and to compensate for reduced labour force growth.
• New technologies will also continue to drive demand in skill requirements. There will be an increased demand for higher education and for skills which are more generic. At the same time, there will also be more demand for low-skilled service jobs. More jobs will require continuous updating of skills and knowledge.
• The nature of work itself will continue to evolve, with more employees experiencing frequent transitions between jobs and occupations and being employed in non-standard work arrangements.
• Environmental pressures, particularly climate change and emerging resource constraints, will play a larger role in technology and skills development. Although overall employment will not change considerably, the move towards a low-carbon economy will require new skills and considerable labour market flexibility to allow New Zealand industries to take advantage of new opportunities.

In a future labour market where skills and flexibility are fundamental characteristics, the New Zealand Skills Strategy [1] will provide a key opportunity for setting out the challenges and opportunities to support future increases in economic growth through improvements in labour productivity.

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