Forces for Change in the Future Labour Market of New Zealand

Figure 3: Labour force projections by main age band 2006 - 2020

National Labour Force Projections, 2006-base, Series 5M (medium fertility, medium mortality, long-run annual net migration of 10,000 and medium labour force participation rates)

Year	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	2036	2037	2038	2039	2040	2041	2042	2043	2044	2045	2046	2047	2048	2049	2050	2051	2052	2053	2054	2055	2056	2057	2058	2059	2060	2061
15-19	173,600	177,900	180,400	181,400	180,500	178,200	176,100	173,900	172,200	170,800	169,900	169,300	168,500	168,800	167,900	168,400	171,600	175,200	177,800	180,600	181,900	181,100	179,900	178,700	177,700	176,900	176,300	175,900	175,700	175,500	175,400	175,300	175,300	175,300	175,400	175,400	175,500	175,500	175,400	175,300	175,200	175,000	174,800	174,600	174,500	174,500	174,600	174,800	175,100	175,400	175,900	176,300	176,600	176,900	177,100	177,200
20-24	218,000	219,100	220,200	223,200	228,100	234,100	239,300	242,400	243,100	242,100	239,000	235,900	233,200	230,800	229,600	228,400	227,200	226,000	226,800	226,100	227,300	232,100	236,900	240,100	243,100	244,400	243,300	241,800	240,200	238,900	237,900	237,200	236,700	236,300	236,100	236,000	236,000	236,000	236,000	236,100	236,100	236,200	236,200	236,100	236,000	235,700	235,500	235,200	235,000	234,900	234,900	235,000	235,400	235,800	236,300	236,800
25-29	212,400	217,200	223,200	227,700	231,200	233,500	234,600	236,300	239,700	245,000	251,600	257,100	260,300	260,900	259,600	256,300	252,900	249,900	247,300	246,100	244,900	243,400	242,200	243,100	242,400	243,900	249,300	254,500	258,000	261,200	262,500	261,300	259,500	257,800	256,500	255,400	254,600	254,100	253,700	253,500	253,400	253,300	253,300	253,400	253,400	253,500	253,500	253,600	253,500	253,300	253,100	252,800	252,500	252,200	252,100	252,200
30-34	234,600	228,600	223,800	222,300	223,200	226,600	231,100	237,200	241,500	244,700	246,800	247,700	249,300	252,700	258,100	264,700	270,100	273,300	273,900	272,600	269,300	265,900	262,900	260,300	259,100	258,000	256,400	255,200	256,200	255,500	257,000	262,500	267,700	271,200	274,400	275,700	274,500	272,700	271,000	269,600	268,600	267,800	267,300	266,900	266,700	266,600	266,600	266,600	266,600	266,600	266,700	266,800	266,800	266,700	266,500	266,300
35-39	258,900	260,800	259,900	256,500	252,200	245,000	238,500	233,500	231,700	232,300	235,500	239,800	245,800	250,100	253,200	255,400	256,300	258,000	261,300	266,700	273,300	278,800	282,000	282,600	281,400	278,100	274,700	271,700	269,100	267,900	266,800	265,300	264,000	265,000	264,300	265,800	271,300	276,500	280,100	283,300	284,600	283,400	281,600	279,900	278,600	277,500	276,700	276,200	275,800	275,600	275,500	275,500	275,500	275,500	275,600	275,600
40-44	279,300	275,900	272,700	271,500	271,900	274,300	276,100	275,300	271,900	267,300	259,800	252,900	247,700	245,800	246,300	249,600	254,100	260,300	264,700	268,000	270,200	271,200	272,800	276,200	281,700	288,600	294,200	297,600	298,300	296,900	293,500	290,000	286,900	284,200	283,000	281,900	280,300	279,100	280,000	279,300	280,900	286,500	291,900	295,600	298,900	300,300	299,000	297,300	295,500	294,100	293,000	292,200	291,600	291,200	291,000	290,900
45-49	266,400	273,700	280,300	283,500	284,000	281,800	278,400	275,500	274,400	274,900	277,300	279,100	278,200	274,800	270,200	262,600	255,800	250,600	248,800	249,400	252,800	257,200	263,500	267,900	271,200	273,400	274,300	276,000	279,500	285,100	292,000	297,600	301,000	301,600	300,300	296,800	293,300	290,200	287,500	286,400	285,200	283,700	282,400	283,400	282,700	284,300	290,000	295,500	299,200	302,500	303,800	302,500	300,700	299,000	297,500	296,400
50-54	226,500	232,700	238,800	245,900	252,600	259,600	266,600	273,100	276,100	276,500	274,200	270,800	268,000	267,000	267,400	269,900	271,700	270,800	267,400	262,900	255,600	249,000	243,900	242,300	243,000	246,300	250,700	256,800	261,200	264,400	266,600	267,500	269,200	272,700	278,200	285,000	290,500	293,700	294,300	293,000	289,700	286,200	283,300	280,600	279,500	278,400	276,900	275,600	276,600	276,000	277,600	283,200	288,600	292,200	295,400	296,600
55-59	193,000	195,200	197,800	202,000	206,300	212,300	218,400	224,500	231,300	237,600	244,200	250,700	256,700	259,600	259,800	257,700	254,600	252,000	251,100	251,700	254,000	255,800	255,000	251,800	247,500	240,600	234,400	229,800	228,200	229,000	232,200	236,500	242,300	246,400	249,500	251,500	252,400	254,100	257,400	262,700	269,200	274,400	277,400	277,900	276,700	273,600	270,300	267,500	265,000	264,000	263,000	261,500	260,400	261,300	260,700	262,400
60-64	115,600	126,500	138,200	146,500	154,000	159,500	161,000	162,800	165,800	169,000	173,500	178,000	182,400	187,800	192,800	198,200	203,500	208,200	210,300	210,100	208,200	205,800	204,000	203,600	204,100	206,100	207,400	206,600	203,700	200,000	194,400	189,700	186,100	185,300	186,200	189,000	192,700	197,500	200,900	203,300	204,800	205,500	207,100	210,100	214,800	220,300	224,300	226,500	226,600	225,700	223,200	220,500	218,200	216,200	215,600	214,800
65-69	38,300	45,300	49,800	55,200	59,900	64,000	70,800	77,100	81,000	84,300	86,400	86,700	87,300	88,700	90,400	92,900	95,400	97,700	100,600	103,300	106,300	109,200	111,600	112,600	112,200	111,100	109,800	109,100	109,200	109,500	110,700	111,400	110,700	109,000	106,900	103,900	101,600	99,900	99,700	100,500	102,100	104,200	106,700	108,400	109,500	110,200	110,600	111,700	113,500	116,100	119,200	121,000	121,900	121,700	121,100	119,900
70-74	14,200	16,700	19,100	21,300	23,800	26,400	28,600	29,400	30,800	31,900	32,900	35,300	37,700	39,300	40,600	41,600	41,700	42,100	42,800	43,600	44,800	46,100	47,200	48,700	50,000	51,500	52,900	54,100	54,700	54,500	54,000	53,500	53,100	53,200	53,300	53,900	54,300	54,000	53,200	52,200	50,800	49,700	48,800	48,700	49,100	49,900	50,900	52,200	53,100	53,600	54,000	54,200	54,700	55,600	56,900	58,400
75-79	6,500	7,500	8,200	8,900	9,400	9,900	10,500	11,100	11,600	12,400	13,200	13,900	14,000	14,500	14,900	15,400	16,600	17,700	18,400	19,100	19,500	19,700	19,800	20,200	20,600	21,200	21,800	22,400	23,100	23,800	24,500	25,200	25,800	26,100	26,000	25,800	25,500	25,400	25,400	25,500	25,800	26,000	25,900	25,500	25,000	24,300	23,800	23,400	23,400	23,600	24,000	24,500	25,100	25,600	25,800	26,000
80+	2,500	3,000	3,400	3,800	4,100	4,400	4,600	4,800	4,900	5,000	5,200	5,300	5,500	5,700	6,000	6,400	6,700	6,800	7,000	7,300	7,600	8,200	8,700	9,100	9,400	9,700	9,900	10,200	10,500	10,800	11,100	11,500	11,800	12,200	12,600	13,000	13,400	13,700	14,000	14,100	14,200	14,200	14,300	14,500	14,600	14,700	14,900	14,800	14,800	14,600	14,400	14,300	14,200	14,200	14,200	14,300
Total	2,240,000	2,280,000	2,316,000	2,350,000	2,381,000	2,410,000	2,435,000	2,457,000	2,476,000	2,494,000	2,509,000	2,522,000	2,535,000	2,546,000	2,557,000	2,567,000	2,578,000	2,588,000	2,598,000	2,607,000	2,616,000	2,623,000	2,630,000	2,637,000	2,643,000	2,650,000	2,656,000	2,662,000	2,667,000	2,673,000	2,679,000	2,684,000	2,690,000	2,696,000	2,703,000	2,709,000	2,716,000	2,722,000	2,729,000	2,735,000	2,741,000	2,746,000	2,751,000	2,756,000	2,760,000	2,764,000	2,768,000	2,771,000	2,774,000	2,776,000	2,778,000	2,780,000	2,782,000	2,784,000	2,786,000	2,788,000

Note: The 2006-base national labour force projections were released in May 2008 and have as a base the estimated resident population of New Zealand in the labour force at 30 June 2006.

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Year	15-19	20-24	25-29	30-34	35-39	40-44	45-49	50-54	55-59	60-64	65-69	70-74	75-79	80+	Total	15-24	25-34	35-44	45-54	55+	55-64	65+
2006	173,600	218,000	212,400	234,600	258,900	279,300	266,400	226,500	193,000	115,600	38,300	14,200	6,500	2,500	2,240,000	391,600	447,000	538,200	492,900	361,100	308,600	52,500	15%	16%
2008	180,400	220,200	223,200	223,800	259,900	272,700	280,300	238,800	197,800	138,200	49,800	19,100	8,200	3,400	2,316,000	400,600	447,000	532,600	519,100	404,900	336,000	68,900	17%	17%
2010	180,500	228,100	231,200	223,200	252,200	271,900	284,000	252,600	206,300	154,000	59,900	23,800	9,400	4,100	2,381,000	408,600	454,400	524,100	536,600	444,000	360,300	83,700	19%	19%
2012	176,100	239,300	234,600	231,100	238,500	276,100	278,400	266,600	218,400	161,000	70,800	28,600	10,500	4,600	2,435,000	415,400	465,700	514,600	545,000	478,800	379,400	99,400	21%	20%
2014	172,200	243,100	239,700	241,500	231,700	271,900	274,400	276,100	231,300	165,800	81,000	30,800	11,600	4,900	2,476,000	415,300	481,200	503,600	550,500	508,900	397,100	111,800	22%	21%
2016	169,900	239,000	251,600	246,800	235,500	259,800	277,300	274,200	244,200	173,500	86,400	32,900	13,200	5,200	2,509,000	408,900	498,400	495,300	551,500	537,000	417,700	119,300	22%	21%
2018	168,500	233,200	260,300	249,300	245,800	247,700	278,200	268,000	256,700	182,400	87,300	37,700	14,000	5,500	2,535,000	401,700	509,600	493,500	546,200	564,100	439,100	125,000	22%	22%
2020	167,900	229,600	259,600	258,100	253,200	246,300	270,200	267,400	259,800	192,800	90,400	40,600	14,900	6,000	2,557,000	397,500	517,700	499,500	537,600	583,600	452,600	131,000	22%	23%
2021	168,400	228,400	256,300	264,700	255,400	249,600	262,600	269,900	257,700	198,200	92,900	41,600	15,400	6,400	2,567,000	396,800	521,000	505,000	532,500	590,400	455,900	134,500	23%	23%
2022	171,600	227,200	252,900	270,100	256,300	254,100	255,800	271,700	254,600	203,500	95,400	41,700	16,600	6,700	2,578,000	398,800	523,000	510,400	527,500	595,200	458,100	137,100	23%	23%
2023	175,200	226,000	249,900	273,300	258,000	260,300	250,600	270,800	252,000	208,200	97,700	42,100	17,700	6,800	2,588,000	401,200	523,200	518,300	521,400	600,000	460,200	139,800	23%	23%
2024	177,800	226,800	247,300	273,900	261,300	264,700	248,800	267,400	251,100	210,300	100,600	42,800	18,400	7,000	2,598,000	404,600	521,200	526,000	516,200	604,800	461,400	143,400	24%	23%
2025	180,600	226,100	246,100	272,600	266,700	268,000	249,400	262,900	251,700	210,100	103,300	43,600	19,100	7,300	2,607,000	406,700	518,700	534,700	512,300	608,700	461,800	146,900	24%	23%
2026	181,900	227,300	244,900	269,300	273,300	270,200	252,800	255,600	254,000	208,200	106,300	44,800	19,500	7,600	2,616,000	409,200	514,200	543,500	508,400	613,300	462,200	151,100	25%	23%
2027	181,100	232,100	243,400	265,900	278,800	271,200	257,200	249,000	255,800	205,800	109,200	46,100	19,700	8,200	2,623,000	413,200	509,300	550,000	506,200	616,900	461,600	155,300	25%	24%
2028	179,900	236,900	242,200	262,900	282,000	272,800	263,500	243,900	255,000	204,000	111,600	47,200	19,800	8,700	2,630,000	416,800	505,100	554,800	507,400	617,800	459,000	158,800	26%	23%
2029	178,700	240,100	243,100	260,300	282,600	276,200	267,900	242,300	251,800	203,600	112,600	48,700	20,200	9,100	2,637,000	418,800	503,400	558,800	510,200	616,700	455,400	161,300	26%	23%
2030	177,700	243,100	242,400	259,100	281,400	281,700	271,200	243,000	247,500	204,100	112,200	50,000	20,600	9,400	2,643,000	420,800	501,500	563,100	514,200	613,800	451,600	162,200	26%	23%
2031	176,900	244,400	243,900	258,000	278,100	288,600	273,400	246,300	240,600	206,100	111,100	51,500	21,200	9,700	2,650,000	421,300	501,900	566,700	519,700	609,300	446,700	162,600	27%	23%

 

Back to Forces for Change in the Future Labour Market of New Zealand